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On the Cost of Voting for the Lesser Evil, Addendum

After Lisa's brief  (and accurate!) summary of my post, I realized that there are a few broader issues that I'd like to make clear, too.

First of all, this applies to all political participation regardless of the election or party affiliation. All of us are subject to the "follow the leader" effect, and there is evidence that those who are best informed regarding politics are the most susceptible to it. Those who voted for Clinton (or anyone else in the last election) would be subject to the same tendencies to have their views shaped by that person. As I understand Achen and Bartels, however, the much lower visibility of losing candidates gives them much less ability to shape their supporters. So, ironically, voting for the lesser evil is less dangerous if one votes for a losing candidate.

So why does this matter?

I take from it that the old conservative argument that character matters for holding office is meaningfully vindicated in practice. Which brings me to the second point...

The tension and frustration felt by many evangelicals (among others!) in the 2016 election was the result of candidates that were widely perceived as morally deficient. I do not see this as a passing problem, however, as the party primary system does not select for virtue. In fact, the growth of negative partisanship means that parties do not need to prevent the selection of unqualified or morally suspect candidates. So, if being unscrupulous can get a candidate through the primary system, then they are in the clear and basically have a fifty-fifty chance of winning the general election (again, following Achen and Bartels).

In other words, this issue isn't about Trump and Clinton, but rather seems like a structural problem that our political system as currently constructed through laws and political parties are unable to fend off. For those with a strong party affiliation (or antipathy toward either party), there is a good chance that they will face this kind of question again in some future election, which is why I think it is worth continued reflection.

I'm with Joseph--this is uncomfortable, but I'm persuaded that it is true and therefore committed to working through its implications.
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Comments

  1. DennyMay 16, 2018 at 4:43 PM

    The insight of Achen and Bartels is analogous to one of the observations of social psychology: we regularly behave ourselves into beliefs as well as behave because of beliefs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PhillipMay 23, 2018 at 10:25 AM

      Definitely. I've read a little about some of that work, and it all seems to be pointing in the same direction.

      Delete

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